Nov. 9th, 2009
Last week, the Republicans began their almost futile uphill attempt to recapture the halls of Congress and the Oval Office.
In local elections the state of Virginia, considered a blue state, turned red and elected a Republican governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general. The garden state of New Jersey elected a Republican governor, soundly defeating the incumbent Democrat who shot himself in the political foot. He was a victim of his own foot-in-the-mouth disease when he said his opponent was too “fat.” He should have known there is no such animal as a fat Republican.
But there was one glimmer of hope for President Barack Obama’s party. On the national scene, the Democrats picked up a vacated congressional seat representing the 23rd congressional district in up-state New York. Democrat Bill Owens defeated Republican conservative Doug Hoffman by a large margin.
Hoffman was an ultraconservative preaching ex-President George W. Bush’s doctrine. As a matter of fact, he was so conservative that another Republican vying for the same congressional seat in the run-off election, New York state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, withdrew from the race and actually crossed the hallowed political party lines endorsing Owens, her former Democrat opponent. But Hoffman’s betrayal by the Republican Party’s moderates might give us some insight into the future direction and success of the GOP in its next bid for the presidency.
Republican political pundits, campaign managers and some talk show hosts have characterized these elections as an all-seeing crystal ball predicting the demise of the Democratic Party’s control of Congress and the end of Obama’s term in office. Well, not so fast. They had better look at the division in their own party and ways to sway the Independent voter before they start administering last rites to the Democrats.
The Democrats proved that unity within their party and organizing independent voters was the key to winning the presidential election. That may be true, but a large percentage of voters, especially Independents, supported Obama because they hated Bush and his ultraconservative regime and policies of war. It’s these same independent voters who will decide who our next president will be.
Using this midterm election as a schematic for things to come would be a mistake for both the Republicans and the Democrats. The New Jersey and Virginia elections were in response to local and state issues, not national policy. And there won’t be many leftover Bush conservatives like Hoffman to easily defeat in future campaigns.
In New Jersey, another historically blue state, the gubernatorial race had three candidates: the incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine, Republican Chris Christie and Independent Chris Daggett. Obama, who won the state in the presidential election, visited New Jersey, twice campaigning for Corzine in a losing effort. Even with Obama at his side, Corzine couldn’t win over the independent vote. Was this in response to Obama’s leadership in Washington? Could be, but more than likely it was another signal of just how fickle and important the independent voters are to our democratic process.
Half of the 2.9 million registered voters in New Jersey are Independents. Going into the election, you would think Daggett had a great chance of winning. But with a few exceptions, such as Jesse Ventura, independent voters do not vote for independent candidates. Ventura, running as an Independent on the reform, was elected governor of Minnesota in November 1998.
Going into the election, Daggett had 12 percent of the vote. By some estimates at the end, he had less than 6 percent. And half of his supporters voted for the Republican candidate. The independent voters decided the outcome of the election.
Most independent voters usually have no party affiliations. They have their own personal agenda and collectively are not committed to any specific candidate. Again, Obama is the exception.
The next presidential election may prove to be another exception. It’s estimated that 40 percent of all the registered voters in the United States are independents. If a strong independent candidate such as Hillary Clinton or even Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin ran on a platform of political change, ending the war with the Muslims and had a sound economic policy, both the Republicans and Democrats might be chanting their own political dirge as they watch independents paint the White House purple.
